How are autonomous vehicles able to predict traffic decisions made by others?

Artificial Intelligence, Emerging Tech There was a great piece published recently about the next challenges in terms of autonomy with respect to self-driving. One of those is prediction. At some point, we believe that there’s known unknowns and then there’s the unknown unknown at some level. So we believe that we can solve the localization problem. We can get our perception system to a level of robustness that can deliver great value in terms of the economy system.  But then the next component is that you are not somebody who just acts irrespective of what else is going on in the scene. So being able to predict what other actors are doing over a short to medium timescale such that you can plan appropriately to interact with the scene, but also take into account that your actions influence how other people react. For this, there is a very strong push in terms of trying to understand how that works.  With advances in deep learning and massive amounts of data, we hope at some point we’ll be able to reason about not just what other people are doing, but what other people do when we take a certain action and how we can influence the environment around it. It’s a very thorny problem and the actual space, as you can imagine, in terms of trying to determine what actions we should take. So trying to come up with concise learnable models that relate your actions on other people’s actions and how that scales is a thorny problem.  Driving in San Francisco, in a rush hour for example, you want to get onto the freeway. If you’re very conservative the end result is that you’ll never get on the freeway. Driving in San Francisco, even as a human, I feel my blood pressure really skyrocketing because it’s such a complex environment. So you have to have some things that you are allowed to or you have to break rules or conventions at some point to be able to deliver the service and to teach the system to be cautious at some points and to be aggressive at other points. https://olivercameron.substack.com/p/the-next-leap-in-self-driving-prediction

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There was a great piece published recently about the next challenges in terms of autonomy with respect to self-driving. One of those is prediction. At some point, we believe that there’s known unknowns and then there’s the unknown unknown at some level. So we believe that we can solve the localization problem. We can get our perception system to a level of robustness that can deliver great value in terms of the economy system.  But then the next component is that you are not somebody who just acts irrespective of what else is going on in the scene. So being able to predict what other actors are doing over a short to medium timescale such that you can plan appropriately to interact with the scene, but also take into account that your actions influence how other people react. For this, there is a very strong push in terms of trying to understand how that works.  With advances in deep learning and massive amounts of data, we hope at some point we’ll be able to reason about not just what other people are doing, but what other people do when we take a certain action and how we can influence the environment around it. It’s a very thorny problem and the actual space, as you can imagine, in terms of trying to determine what actions we should take. So trying to come up with concise learnable models that relate your actions on other people’s actions and how that scales is a thorny problem.  Driving in San Francisco, in a rush hour for example, you want to get onto the freeway. If you’re very conservative the end result is that you’ll never get on the freeway. Driving in San Francisco, even as a human, I feel my blood pressure really skyrocketing because it’s such a complex environment. So you have to have some things that you are allowed to or you have to break rules or conventions at some point to be able to deliver the service and to teach the system to be cautious at some points and to be aggressive at other points. https://olivercameron.substack.com/p/the-next-leap-in-self-driving-prediction